Weekly Analysis of 14 Juin 2013 pdf I 408.78 ko
Economic and financial Environment: our analysis of the situation
Emerging debt markets sell-off creates opportunities
In the Eurozone, April industrial output figures came out above forecasts. In the US, although May retail sales were strong, industrial output was slightly disappointing. Deflation is continuing in Japan.
Little change of sovereign bond yields but tensions remain high.
The Emerging currencies stabilised versus the US dollar, that lost ground vs developed currencies
Pending new precisions from the FED and the BOJ, risky assets, or those which outperformed the most (Japan), remained under pressure
Budget policies under scrutiny on both sides of the Atlantic
The US has reached political gridlock over fiscal policy. However, the private sector continues to show very encouraging signs of vigour. Growth is at a standstill in the Eurozone and the UK. Whilst in Latin America, good news keeps coming.
Stabilisation in Cyprus and political stalemate in Italy
The situation seems to be stabilising temporarily in Cyprus. The reopening of Cyprus' banks went better than anticipated. Capital controls are in effect. The Cyprus crisis and the Italian political deadlock have continued to weigh on European bond, credit and equity markets. However, in the rest of the world, the impact of this new Eurozone stress, after causing concern over the previous week, scaled back over the last few days.