Markets & Strategy

France: loss of AAA rating and its impacts

The speakers:
Romain Boscher, Global Head of Equities
Didier Borowski, Head of Strategy and Economic Research
Eric Brard, Global Head of Fixed Income

If the above player does not work, please click on the following link:
http://meetingone.acrobat.com/uk1901120CAIS

This monthly document gathers all Amundi’s analysis and strategies regarding all asset classes. Find all our views organized by themes.

Featured in our January 2012 issue:

1. Debt crisis: a positive outcome in the eurozone is still possible
2. Asset allocation in 2012: bringing risk back into portfolios?
3. 2012 economic scenario: inflexion, elections, disinflation (and “reflation”): key words
4. Monetary policy: maintaining low rates for at least two years
5. Fixed-income markets: sovereigns being pulled both ways!
6. Eurozone countries financing needs in 2012: troubles in sight
7. Credit market: the European sovereign crisis is still the most important driver
8. Investment Grade Corporate bonds: where to from 2011?
9. Forex markets: the euro’s fate will play out in 2012
10. Equity markets: asymmetric risks in 2012
11. After the full defensive play of 2011, be ready to add a touch of emerging play for 2012
12. Emerging equities to make a comeback in 2012
13. Commodities in 2012: one year, two semesters!

19 January 2012: Futures on Dividends: how do they behave, and what they can tell us during an equity crisis

In June 2008 a quoted future on aggregated dividends paid by constituents of EURO STOXX 50- started to be traded on the EUREX.
Nowadays one future contract is available for dividends paid over each civil year 2011, 2012 and following, until 2020. Maturity date of each of these contracts is end of December of each fiscal year, and contracts are quoted in index points.
Analysis of these contracts provides interesting information about financial crisis.

19 January 2012: Credit - Corporate default rate forecasting

The pace of corporate defaults had declined dramatically in 2010 and dropped further this year, though decelerating from previous year’s unprecedented fall. The vast majority of indicators leading default rates currently point to a further, though limited drop over the next months: a likely trough should be reached between Q4 -‘10 and H1-‘12.
Rating agencies subscribe to this point of view: last projections from S&P call for a trough of 1.6% in global default rates by March-June next year, down from 1.8% projected by year end. Under its baseline scenario, in its November Default Report published on 7 December, Moody’s pointed to a 1.7% by year end for Global defaults, down from current 1.8% and from 2% recorded in previous months, though the comparable rate is estimated to rise from 2.5% to 2.6% in Europe [...]

January 2012

Markets remained fixated on Europe's sovereign debt crisis through the last month of the year, but with little to cheer. The latest Eurozone leader's summit of December 9-11 again produced no major breakthrough, with a so-called "fiscal compact" championed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which commits Eurozone members to budgetary discipline under the threat of sanctions [...]