Six questions concerning the weakness behind US resiliency
In January we had some upside surprises, encompassing import prices, producer prices, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator. We think prices were in part boosted by seasonal factors which are not fully accounted for in the usual seasonal adjustment. The weakness in January retail sales and a downward revision of November and December readings signal, in our opinion, a potential downshift in consumer spending. Credit card and auto loan delinquency rates continue to rise according to the New York Fed report; consumption so far has been supported by the depletion of excess savings but US households have also taken on more debt, and some of those loans are becoming delinquent, especially credit card and auto loans, which are now above pre-COVID levels.