US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

Wednesday 04 November 2020

Market News

The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometime during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19. There are possible paths to victory for both Trump and Biden. So far, the electoral college map is looking much like the 2016 race. Trump's deft use of nationalism appears to have resonated with white voters as well as some minority working-class voters. His message during the closing days of the campaign warned of rising socialism and higher taxes, and he touted his efforts to bring jobs back to the United States. Trade tariffs were an important part of his agenda. A very high turnout did not favour largely the Democrats.

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US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213  (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days

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2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided

Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies. A political realignment is underway, with GOP emerging as a working-class party and dominating the vote in rural areas, while the ‘Blue wall’ of the Midwestern stattes of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin has become competitive for both parties.