Markets have shown good levels of resilience since the start of the year; this also considering the persistency of several factors, including geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, that have severely weighted on performance in 2022. Nevertheless, the growth outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.
We have seen three main themes of late. First, the US economy held up well, on the back of strong investments and consumption. But China, on track for lower long-term growth, is showing signs of weakness in its near-term trajectory. Thirdly, the policy divergence between central banks in emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) is becoming more visible after the recent rate cuts in Latin America. This backdrop calls for a cautious, diversified stance with all portfolio hedges in place. However, investors should aim to benefit from the EM growth advantage and policy divergences through EM equities and debt.
Source of Investment views and convictions: Amundi Investment Institute, Global Investment Views – September 2023
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Date of publication: 25 September 2023 Doc ID: #3130095
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