Global Investment News July 2019

Central banks fuel markets: illusion vs reality

The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late-cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets. But, it is difficult to see such improvements happening in the short term. Purchasing Manager Indices have been declining and what we are seeing is a deterioration in the ‘quality’ of growth. Headline figures of growth are still moderately positive, and not far off our expectations of a few months ago, but the composition of growth has changed. Most components of growth are of concern to policymakers beyond the decline in trade growth. We particularly pay attention to the decline in investment growth. However, as far as domestic demand is concerned, it remains healthy, thanks to sound labour markets. 

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