- 2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided
2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided
Tuesday 10 November 2020
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Key takeaways: This election and its outcome may lead to the repudiation of Trump, but not necessarily of ‘Trumpism’, as the election turned into a referendum on Trump as a person versus Biden as a person. Character was a factor. In addition, turnout hit its highest level since 1952 at 62%, with 148 million votes having been tallied. Finally, polls still appear to be off the mark, especially on Trump’s. It is possible that Trump’s appeal brings out low propensity voters. Declining response rates is probably the strongest argument why polls were off. Investment implicat
Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies. A political realignment is underway, with GOP emerging as a working-class party and dominating the vote in rural areas, while the ‘Blue wall’ of the Midwestern stattes of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin has become competitive for both parties.
Investment Insight Blue Paper December 2020
Responsible investing expands further with green convertible bonds
The US election and Covid-19 vaccines: implications for the economy and markets
The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy, that is, higher taxes. With multiple Covid-19 vaccines showing promise, the US economy may surprise on the upside in 2021.
Early Christmas gifts to support year-end rally
As we approach year-end, markets can count on two pieces of news to propel some optimism. The first comes from the US, where the Biden victory, without a real Blue Wave, is seen by markets as the best possible outcome. A Republican, or even a 50-50 senate, would make it very hard for the new president to pass any extreme measures in terms of fiscal push, more drastic legislation or tax increases.