Early Christmas gifts to support year-end rally
Friday 27 November 2020
News, Investment Talks, Market News
The other positive news came from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, regarding the high efficacy of their vaccines, while other trials are also accelerating.
However, both news brings some shadows as well. Markets are underestimating that Biden will have to concede something to the more radical section of his party. On vaccines, we need a confirmation from the scientific community that they work. In addition, development of vaccines for a large portion of the population is challenging.
As we approach year-end, markets can count on two pieces of news to propel some optimism. The first comes from the US, where the Biden victory, without a real Blue Wave, is seen by markets as the best possible outcome. A Republican, or even a 50-50 senate, would make it very hard for the new president to pass any extreme measures in terms of fiscal push, more drastic legislation or tax increases.
Global foreign exchange regime faces winds of change
Regionalisation, receding global value chains, and the reshoring of manufacturing activities will make the world less dependent on dollars.
Upheaval in the global FX regime
The global FX regime of the last 20 years has been characterised by a distinct pattern of capital flows. At its core, Asian countries (mostly China) recycled their current account surpluses into USD-denominated FX reserves
Weekly Market Review 3rd of October 2022
The Week at a glance