- 2017 French Presidential Election
2017 French Presidential Election
Friday 12 May 2017
OAT/Bund Spread : Recent Trends, Equilibrium Value and Perspectives
Interest rate differentials between France and Germany rose sharply in the months leading up to the French presidential elections and even reached levels never seen since 2011. But after the election of Emmanuel Macron (and even a little before, to tell the truth), these spreads have narrowed markedly, proof of the fall of the specific risk on France.
Although political factors have recently guided the spreads, others will influence sovereign spreads in the euro area over the coming quarters: debates over negative interest rates, robustness of GDP growth, timetable for the end of the ECB's Quantitative Easing (and therefore its public asset purchasing programme, the PSPP) are all decisive factors.
To better understand the underlying situation, it is necessary to take a step back and analyse the movements of spreads over the last two decades, but also to draw lessons from academic research on the subject, in order to estimate equilibrium values.
This note (the 10th in our series) has the ambition to present the factors that will change sovereign spreads in the coming quarters.
Lessons learned from the Q1 2017 earnings season
As the earnings season comes to a close, the time has come to report back on what we have found.
Biosimilars – Now a reality even for complex biologics
Within the next five years, Biosimilars should take an increasingly important role as a powerful force driving down the cost of healthcare in the US and elsewhere or enabling more patients to gain access to some of the most complex biologics: eight therapies among the world’s Top 10 could face biosimilar competition, mostly in the field of inflammation.
This section develops our central scenario and our main convictions. It highlights the main orientations of our asset allocation and presents the strategies that characterize the structure of our portfolios:bond portfolios, equity portfolios and diversified portfolios.