- 2017 French Presidential Election
2017 French Presidential Election
Friday 12 May 2017
OAT/Bund Spread : Recent Trends, Equilibrium Value and Perspectives
Interest rate differentials between France and Germany rose sharply in the months leading up to the French presidential elections and even reached levels never seen since 2011. But after the election of Emmanuel Macron (and even a little before, to tell the truth), these spreads have narrowed markedly, proof of the fall of the specific risk on France.
Although political factors have recently guided the spreads, others will influence sovereign spreads in the euro area over the coming quarters: debates over negative interest rates, robustness of GDP growth, timetable for the end of the ECB's Quantitative Easing (and therefore its public asset purchasing programme, the PSPP) are all decisive factors.
To better understand the underlying situation, it is necessary to take a step back and analyse the movements of spreads over the last two decades, but also to draw lessons from academic research on the subject, in order to estimate equilibrium values.
This note (the 10th in our series) has the ambition to present the factors that will change sovereign spreads in the coming quarters.
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2018
Find the latest edition of the monthly publication of our Research Team.
Sustainable Investment Forum - Video F. Samama
The new Sustainable Investment Forum Europe took place on March 18th 2018 in Paris, gathering decision-makers from the investment community, European governments and think tanks to discuss concrete solutions to the current challenges of the European and global climate finance market.
Thinking Ahead Institute and Amundi publish joint report on factor investing
Investors with a long time horizon are increasingly looking to factors as an attractive means of generating returns from equity markets.