- Global Investment Views - February 2018
Global Investment Views - February 2018
Monday 29 January 2018
Research / Market
Global Investment Views - February 2018 - CIO Views
Hot markets require prudence
Equity markets started the year extremely well in January, after a strong performance in 2017. The S&P index recorded a positive performance in almost every month of last year in a context of exceptionally low volatility. Eighteen of the 20 lowest levels of the VIX of the last 20 years were printed in 2017. Further, the bull run for risk assets continued to extend its long phase of asset inflation. In addition, aggregate bond indexes and emerging market bonds delivered returns above the average of the past 20 years. Can these unique conditions continue?
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game
"We expect further volatility and possible additional down moves led by the growth part of the market and possible pressure on the high yield side as well. But it is not going to be a market capitulation."
Italian budget proposal under scrutiny
"The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years"