- Italy in 2018: between better economic prospects and an uncertain vote
Italy in 2018: between better economic prospects and an uncertain vote
Tuesday 13 February 2018
Research / Market
General elections in Italy will be held on 4 March. Polls suggest that the most likely outcome is a hung parliament. What can follow is not obvious, but Italy is quite accustomed to being led by a “non-political” government, meaning a government that is the direct outcome of the electoral result. While the electoral manifestos are a bit worrying in terms of their impact on public accounts, the contenders are reducing their sharper angles.
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game
"We expect further volatility and possible additional down moves led by the growth part of the market and possible pressure on the high yield side as well. But it is not going to be a market capitulation."
Italian budget proposal under scrutiny
"The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years"