- Global Investment Views - May 2018
Global Investment Views - May 2018
Friday 27 April 2018
Research / Market
Global Investment Views - May 2018 - CIO Views
Charting an investment path through the fog
While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing. In an environment that is already becoming more volatile, amid less accommodative central banks, demanding valuations, endogenous/technical new features of the market (liquidity deteriorating, crowded trades), a significant shift in fundamentals is not required to trigger market movement. A butterfly may do the trick. At the time of writing, geopolitical events are dominating the news flow.
Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained
“The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking”.
Global Investment Views - August 2018
"Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure."
Where will the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it?
"The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced, which led to a marked correction in financial markets in January – February."