- Global Investment Views - July 2018
Global Investment Views - July 2018
Tuesday 26 June 2018
Research / Market
Global Investment Views - July 2018 - CIO Views
A cloudy summer
Investors have experienced generally low returns so far this year, due to the clouds currently gathering on the horizon, and the approach to risk assets is being characterised by increased caution. This attitude has led to weaker equity markets, wider corporate spreads, and some areas of stress in EM (especially in local currencies). We can identify different fronts that need to be monitored closely in the short to medium term: the evolution of the cycle and potential regime shift, geopolitical issues, and EM anxieties.
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon
"The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT)."
Asset class return forecasts - Q4 - 2018
We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.