- CIO Insights - Key investment convictions for the short and long term
CIO Insights - Key investment convictions for the short and long term
Wednesday 11 July 2018
Research / Market
Key investment convictions for the short and long term
Long-term investing is about the belief that fundamental value exists and that asset class returns tend to mean revert to their equilibrium level and rotate around it, within regimes. Every regime is defined by its mean/equilibrium, based on economic and credit cycles (and depends on a number of factors, including monetary and fiscal conditions). Detecting market inefficiencies and misalignments around these trends is the essence of active management ...
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon
"The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT)."
Asset class return forecasts - Q4 - 2018
We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.