- Emerging markets: navigating uncharted territories
Emerging markets: navigating uncharted territories
Tuesday 10 July 2018
Research / Market
- A more challenging global financial environment is putting pressure on EM risky assets with particular impact in some segments (Local Currency)
- EM Markets are still very dependent not only on global financial conditions but even on global demand.
- EM Monetary Policy is shifting towards a tighter stance further penalising domestic economic cycles
- External vulnerability has reduced in the years but the conditions are very heterogeneous among different countries
- Three cases of vulnerability: Brazil, Turkey and Argentina
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon
"The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT)."
Asset class return forecasts - Q4 - 2018
We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.