- Global Investment Views - September 2018
Global Investment Views - September 2018
Monday 10 September 2018
Research / Market
10 years from Lehman: Reality check
The missed deleveraging: If the pace of debt accumulation has slowed down, deleveraging in absolute terms has hardly happened at all post crisis. The prospect of higher rates and the exhaustion of the cyclical upswing open up questions about debt sustainability. Assessing areas of vulnerabilities that could translate into idiosyncratic risks will be key to preventing capital impairment.
Bavarian elections: Eropean political landscape continues to evolve
"The poor performances from the traditional parties in the Bavarian elections represent early signs of a political reshuffle at the federal level."
Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon
"The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT)."
Asset class return forecasts - Q4 - 2018
We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.