- Corporate earnings in 2019: A fading momentum is in store!
Corporate earnings in 2019: A fading momentum is in store!
Tuesday 23 October 2018
Research / Market
After two years of strong earnings momentum, EPS growth is expected to decline considerably from 2019.
Between global growth reaching its climax, the fading impact of US tax reform, the declining contribution of oil and commodities and the rising wage costs and tariffs, the consensus is likely to be negatively surprised.
MSCI ACWI EPS growth which amounted to +17% in 2017 and is estimated at +16% in 2018, could fall to +7% in 2019, instead of +10% expected by the IBES consensus.
Although it is unlikely that market PE will rise in the latter part of the cycle, the prospect of a downgrading of consensus figures could weigh on the equity markets.
The US government shutdown becomes the longest in history
The US Government shutdown started on December 22 2018 is currently the longest ever, with little evidence of end in sight. In recent US history, since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns, lasting from 1 to 21. The longest so far took place under Clinton on Dec 15,1995.
The Alpha and Beta of ESG investing
With the rising awareness around ESG issues worldwide, institutional investors have started to massively look into responsible investment. The latter has grown substantially in Europe and in North America in the past 5 years.
Global Investment Views - May 2018
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee