- Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game
Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game
Friday 12 October 2018
Research / Market
- Market sell-off: a late cycle feature where uncertainty due to tariffs, rates and oil prices are sending some red signals. Autumn comes with a change of mood in the market triggered by rising US Treasury yields, amid a hawkish FED committed to avoid any sign of overheating, and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings season. All elements that will keep volatility on the rise over the next weeks.
- Not a scary movie, but be ready for more pain. Yet, we see this as a market correction, rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. We expect some a further down trend also due to the technical reallocation of market risks. Growth areas of equity markets and high leveraged areas of the credit markets with tight valuations are the most vulnerable places at the moment.
- How to face this environment: add duration in US debt, stay diversified in terms of risks, focus on quality and liquidity in credit, go for value (use available liquidity to buy the most discounted names) and stay out of stretched growth areas.
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.
Economic crisis and political risk batter Argentina. Way out or opportunity?
Argentina’s economic situation: The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years.