- Brexit: where do we stand and what should investors expect?
Brexit: where do we stand and what should investors expect?
Wednesday 28 November 2018
Research / Market
Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead:
After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of the deal will be very difficult and will likely bring new episodes of market stress, but we think the most likely scenario is that the deal will ultimately be ratified (but probably not on the first attempt on 10th December). Whatever happens, uncertainty is likely to remain until the end-March Brexit date.
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.
Economic crisis and political risk batter Argentina. Way out or opportunity?
Argentina’s economic situation: The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years.