- Global Asset Class Spotlights - top down quarterly assessment
Global Asset Class Spotlights - top down quarterly assessment
Wednesday 28 November 2018
Research / Market
High Conviction Ideas
The confluence of financial forces such as: physiological credit cycle deterioration, stronger USD, high leverage, less supportive valuation on multiples that won’t expand on tighter margins (i.e. tighter labour market, tariffs, higher PPI) call for financial risk to dominate economic risk.
For these reasons, we identified some trackers of potential market turnaround: global liquidity and credit spread to track financial and financing conditions, EPS revision and momentum to take the temperature on profit cycle and risk adjusted valuation gaps.
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.
Economic crisis and political risk batter Argentina. Way out or opportunity?
Argentina’s economic situation: The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years.