- Global Investment Views - November 2018
Global Investment Views - November 2018
Thursday 25 October 2018
Research / Market
The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise
The start of autumnmarked a change inmarket dynamics. Volatility is up across the board, the US 10-year yield is flirting with its highest level over the last seven years following a rapid rise; equitymarkets are under pressure. After a period of highly divergent forecasts, markets are starting to price in a synchronised slowdown in global growth, and, hence, the fact that the peak in earnings acceleration is progressively shifting to being behind us. Some ongoing dislocations are accompanying this new situation. Cumulative hikes in interest rates in the US, while limited in absolute terms, have been sufficient to trigger the early stages of a risk-off positioning in emergingmarkets which have recently been negatively affected by idiosyncratic stories (Turkey, Argentina) with weak fundamentals. The risk-off sentiment has been further exacerbated by the Italian budget situation, while the most recent risk-off moves have also broadened their effects to the US in the tech area, which is very stretched in terms of valuations.
The US government shutdown becomes the longest in history
The US Government shutdown started on December 22 2018 is currently the longest ever, with little evidence of end in sight. In recent US history, since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns, lasting from 1 to 21. The longest so far took place under Clinton on Dec 15,1995.
The Alpha and Beta of ESG investing
With the rising awareness around ESG issues worldwide, institutional investors have started to massively look into responsible investment. The latter has grown substantially in Europe and in North America in the past 5 years.
Global Investment Views - May 2018
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee