Global Macro - Outlook to 2020

Macroeconomic Context

In the world economy, 2018 began based on the theme of a synchronised global recovery. But, this did not last. Since the spring, the protectionist measures taken by Donald Trump have changed the game. Emerging economies, some of which are heavily indebted in dollars, have been weakened due to the broadbased appreciation of the US currency. The depreciation of their currencies has generated local inflation and led their central banks to tighten monetary policies, which has weighed on economies already negatively affected by massive capital outflows. Advanced economies have begun to slow down. In our view, the year will end with a global economy that is evolving in a disjointed fashion, with increased downside risks.

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