- Rocky Road for the European Union: Pension Plans' Response
Rocky Road for the European Union: Pension Plans' Response
Wednesday 05 December 2018
Research / Market
Introduction and aims
Cyclical recovery or secular healing?
That’s the big question behind the European Union’s economic bounce after its ‘lost decade’: the toughest period since its inception in 1957.
Last year, its economy finally joined the growth party as part of the most synchronised global expansion since the 2008 financial crisis. It lifted the spectre of secular stagnation, manifested by spiralling debt, runaway deficits, ageing demographics, rising unemployment and anaemic growth.
US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.
Economic crisis and political risk batter Argentina. Way out or opportunity?
Argentina’s economic situation: The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years.