- Brexit muddle-through towards the approaching parliamentary vote
Brexit muddle-through towards the approaching parliamentary vote
Tuesday 08 January 2019
Research / Market
Developments and scenarios ahead
The Brexit-related newsflow since the UK/EU agreement on 25 November 2018 has been quite intense. In our view, it has slightly increased the probability that the UK remains in the EU beyond March 2019, thus prolonging the uncertainty over how (and even whether) Brexit will happen. Nonetheless, our most likely scenario remains that the Brexit deadline arrives with a ratified deal (60% probability).
Note that this probability covers deals other than the recent UK/EU agreement (as long as they lead to a transition period during which the UK will still be part of the European Single Market) and potentially very rocky paths to deal ratification, which would only come after major episodes of uncertainty and stress.
Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility
Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed.
Brexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in
The concept of factor investing and the debate around passive and active management has emerged since the end of the 2000s and has completely changed the landscape of equity investing.
Gold in central banks' asset allocation
After a long lacklustre period during the 1980s and 1990s, the price of gold has picked up significantly since the new millennium, and central banks, after having steadily reduced their allocation to gold, have resumed their gold purchases.