- Brexit muddle-through towards the approaching parliamentary vote
Brexit muddle-through towards the approaching parliamentary vote
Tuesday 08 January 2019
Research / Market
Developments and scenarios ahead
The Brexit-related newsflow since the UK/EU agreement on 25 November 2018 has been quite intense. In our view, it has slightly increased the probability that the UK remains in the EU beyond March 2019, thus prolonging the uncertainty over how (and even whether) Brexit will happen. Nonetheless, our most likely scenario remains that the Brexit deadline arrives with a ratified deal (60% probability).
Note that this probability covers deals other than the recent UK/EU agreement (as long as they lead to a transition period during which the UK will still be part of the European Single Market) and potentially very rocky paths to deal ratification, which would only come after major episodes of uncertainty and stress.
The US government shutdown becomes the longest in history
The US Government shutdown started on December 22 2018 is currently the longest ever, with little evidence of end in sight. In recent US history, since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns, lasting from 1 to 21. The longest so far took place under Clinton on Dec 15,1995.
The Alpha and Beta of ESG investing
With the rising awareness around ESG issues worldwide, institutional investors have started to massively look into responsible investment. The latter has grown substantially in Europe and in North America in the past 5 years.
Global Investment Views - May 2018
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee