- Global Investment Views - January 2019
Global Investment Views - January 2019
Thursday 03 January 2019
Research / Market
Focus on fundamentals to ride turbulent markets
Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas:
1. From economic deceleration to where? It is time to look at where the economy is heading after the synchronised slowdown that the market has now priced in. A global economic recession is not the central scenario. The US economy is still enjoying solid growth and barring a major policy mistake (from the Fed or Trump), it should continue to grow nicely, although at a decelerating rate. Europe’s slowdown is more pronounced, as it is bearing the brunt of multiple political issues (Brexit, Italy and more recently France). However, with some of the risks cooling or passing (easing of trade tensions, weaker oil prices, European elections in May), we see a possible stabilisation of economic conditions through the year, with growth expected to slow down but remain above potential in 2019/20. In EMs the picture is more varied, with some countries expected to decelerate (China) and the emergence of some positive stories (e.g., Indonesia). Overall, we still see a benign economic scenario, with trade disputes and geopolitical factors being the main risks to monitor.
The US government shutdown becomes the longest in history
The US Government shutdown started on December 22 2018 is currently the longest ever, with little evidence of end in sight. In recent US history, since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns, lasting from 1 to 21. The longest so far took place under Clinton on Dec 15,1995.
The Alpha and Beta of ESG investing
With the rising awareness around ESG issues worldwide, institutional investors have started to massively look into responsible investment. The latter has grown substantially in Europe and in North America in the past 5 years.
Global Investment Views - May 2018
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee