Asset Class Views Medium and long term expected returns
Monday 25 February 2019
Research / Market
Foreword
Our approach to expected returns forecasts is model driven. We break down asset class dynamics into a long term component (or trend/fair value), mainly related to macroeconomic variables and a medium-term component, explained by economic and financial cycles. Short-term misalignments, linked to market divergence are not considered here for the purpose of this analysis, but are included while noting our tactical asset allocation recommendations.