- France: the reform momentum stays alive after the Yellow Vest crisis
France: the reform momentum stays alive after the Yellow Vest crisis
Friday 26 July 2019
Research / Market
France: the reform momentum stays alive afterthe Yellow Vest crisis
During the first 18 months of his presidential term, Emmanuel Macron has put through a highly ambitious set of reforms inspired by supply-side economics and the Nordic flexicurity model. While the biggest accomplishments have been in taxation and the job market, the goods and services markets and social benefits programmes have also been addressed.
Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks
Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.
US-China trade war: walking a tightrope
Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June.However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks.