Policy action at the next level, but markets still in search of a ‘real’ catalyst
Thursday 19 March 2020
Research / Market
Where we stand in the crisis and what to watch: Investors have moved from underestimating the severity of the crisis (buoyant markets) to a full global escalation (with the US joining emergency measures) that has led to market disruption and over-reaction. We are still in this over-reaction phase and it will likely continue for some time as the news flow is heavy. It is important to look at China and Italy as leading indicators of what countries can expect. Macro data, unsurprisingly, will be very weak, as we have seen in China’s retail sales and industrial production figures for January and February.