- A civil vice presidential debate has little impact on the race
A civil vice presidential debate has little impact on the race
Friday 09 October 2020
Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning after the debate is that it did not change the trajectory of the race that has moved decisively in favor of former Vice President Biden. For VP Pence it was to attempt to try to change the narrative of this election and define Biden. With time running out, there was an urgency to this after last week’s debate debacle by President Trump. For Senator Harris, it was to reassure voters that she has the experience, temperament and gravitas to assume the presidency if Biden chooses not run for re-election...
The day after #12 - Changing shares of labour and capital incomes: what implications for investors?
The share of national income that is distributed to labour vs. capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. We believe the Covid-19 crisis, along with other factors, will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades. A reversion to the long-term average ratio of labour and capital in the share of income would probably enhance social and political stability, and would better fit with a consumer-driven growth model.
Time to reconsider US growth and value?
The outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks has reached record levels, as has the valuation gap.The environment for growth stocks has been ideal: interest rates have plummeted, and US technology companies have become increasingly dominant in the United States and abroad. However, we believe this ideal environment is unlikely to last. Inflation -- which has been dormant for years -- may rise as a result of stimulus measures. Historically, value has outperformed growth during inflationary periods.
Global Investment Views - October 2020
Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month...