- Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate
Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate
Friday 02 October 2020
President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden. For Biden, it was to reassure voters that he has the mental and physical stamina to handle the office of the Presidency. Polls, surveys and the investment betting markets immediately following the debate indicated Biden with a clear advantage following one of the most raucous and chaotic debates in US history...
The day after #12 - Changing shares of labour and capital incomes: what implications for investors?
The share of national income that is distributed to labour vs. capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. We believe the Covid-19 crisis, along with other factors, will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades. A reversion to the long-term average ratio of labour and capital in the share of income would probably enhance social and political stability, and would better fit with a consumer-driven growth model.
Time to reconsider US growth and value?
The outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks has reached record levels, as has the valuation gap.The environment for growth stocks has been ideal: interest rates have plummeted, and US technology companies have become increasingly dominant in the United States and abroad. However, we believe this ideal environment is unlikely to last. Inflation -- which has been dormant for years -- may rise as a result of stimulus measures. Historically, value has outperformed growth during inflationary periods.
Global Investment Views - October 2020
Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month...