- Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020
Monday 10 August 2020
All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating analysis of key driving factors, confirms last quarter’s future sequence of macro-financial regimes1 registering some slight fine tuning in terms of recovery forecasts coherent with the macro picture taking shape. We maintain that the subsequent recovery will not happen immediately, with spurts of relief rallies not quite reaching pre-pandemic levels accompanied by the cooling of monetary and fiscal policies, eventually landing in a late cycle or potentially an asset reflation regime if central banks remain ultra-supportive...
Preqin and Amundi announce the results of the 2nd annual Alternatives in Europe report
The report finds that although the macro-economic picture for Europe has been muted in the past 24 months, the alternatives industry in the region is moving from strength to strength with alternative assets hitting €1.62tn in AUM – up almost €300bn in just three years.
Risk budgeting and trade sizing: why they matter to multi-asset portfolio construction
In the current environment of heightened uncertainty, managing a multi-asset portfolio has rarely looked as complex as it does today, especially for those investors looking for an appropriate governance model on which to take investment decisions.The issue is not only to make accurate market forecasts and formulate appropriate investment views, but also to construct an efficient portfolio based on these views within a given risk budget.
The day after #11 - Post-crisis narratives that will drive financial markets
Today, investors have a unique opportunity to observe the spreading of a real virus alongside the viral nature of financial markets and the real economy. As Nobel Prizewinning economist Robert Shiller points out in his book, Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events, “stories and images are created around new economic events”1. In some cases, these stories are memories of the past and their spreading can have major implications regarding economic and financial markets.