Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

Monday 10 August 2020

All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating analysis of key driving factors, confirms last quarter’s future sequence of macro-financial regimes1 registering some slight fine tuning in terms of recovery forecasts coherent with the macro picture taking shape. We maintain that the subsequent recovery will not happen immediately, with spurts of relief rallies not quite reaching pre-pandemic levels accompanied by the cooling of monetary and fiscal policies, eventually landing in a late cycle or potentially an asset reflation regime if central banks remain ultra-supportive...

Read more

Other news

Vignette - Risk Budgeting
23/09/2020

Risk budgeting and trade sizing: why they matter to multi-asset portfolio construction

In the current environment of heightened uncertainty, managing a multi-asset portfolio has rarely looked as complex as it does today, especially for those investors looking for an appropriate governance model on which to take investment decisions.The issue is not only to make accurate market forecasts and formulate appropriate investment views, but also to construct an efficient portfolio based on these views within a given risk budget.

Vignette - The Day After #11
23/09/2020

The day after #11 - Post-crisis narratives that will drive financial markets

Today, investors have a unique opportunity to observe the spreading of a real virus alongside the viral nature of financial markets and the real economy. As Nobel Prizewinning economist Robert Shiller points out in his book, Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events, “stories and images are created around new economic events”1. In some cases, these stories are memories of the past and their spreading can have major implications regarding economic and financial markets.