- Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2021
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2021
Thursday 05 August 2021
The first half of 2021 has been witness to exceptional growth in demand fueled in large part fiscal stimulus and waning Covid-related restrictions. Latest data release indicates the major economies may be at the onset of high-water mark of economic acceleration and the growth will slow down worldwide. Uncertainties of future cash infusions paired with ebb and flow from Covid re-openings are likely to be further headwinds to further short-term demand acceleration...
German election remains open, with an eye on the green transition
Election outcome: The most likely winner in terms of votes and seats will either be the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Likely scenarios include the ‘traffic-light’ coalition (SPD-Greens-pro-market Liberal Democratic Party, FDP) or the ‘Jamaica’ coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP). However, other combinations are possible.
ESG Thema #3 - How can investors contribute to Net Zero efforts?
While carbon emissions have been increasing slowly despite efforts to bring them down, “net zero” commitments, however, have skyrocketed. Setting climate objectives used to be the appanage of public actors, but no longer. Investors are increasingly on board and net zero alliances exist for all kinds of financial institutions: asset owners, banks, asset managers. On top of that, at the COP26 in Glasgow, a net zero alliance of alliances will be launched “the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero”.
Shifts & Narratives #8 - Post-summer check-up on the regime shift
Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio returned around 19% on a one-year horizon, well above even the rosiest expectations of the recovery from the Covid-19-induced slump.