Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

Wednesday 20 May 2020

If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.

Read more

Other news

Global Investment View
04/05/2020 Global Investment View

Global Investment Views - May 2020

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). 

Global Investment View
04/03/2020 Global Investment View

Global Investment Views - March 2020

The spread of Covid-19 outside China has rattled risk assets in the recent trading sessions. Investors triggered some profit taking in markets, which reached historical highs and even broke psychological thresholds in previous weeks. The atmosphere of fear has remained consistently high only in the so-called safe assets — the USD, UST and gold — signaling that investors have been looking for effective hedging strategies.