France outlook

Thursday 12 November 2020

Investment Talks

In Q3 France posted a major surprise, with its 18.2% QoQ rise in GDP beating both consensus and our expectations, and leaving the French economy only about 4.0% below pre-Covid levels. But with the second wave and the new lockdown taking a toll on activity and sentiment, we now expect a new contraction of 3.3% QoQ in Q4. This will be followed by a slow and uneven recovery, which will reach full traction only from Q2 2021, when we assume restrictions will be fully lifted. In the meantime, a ‘stop and go’ process may take place, making the recovery path bumpier and more uncertain...

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Other news

Vignette - US election outcome and market reaction
04/11/2020 Investment Talks

US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.