- France outlook
Thursday 12 November 2020
In Q3 France posted a major surprise, with its 18.2% QoQ rise in GDP beating both consensus and our expectations, and leaving the French economy only about 4.0% below pre-Covid levels. But with the second wave and the new lockdown taking a toll on activity and sentiment, we now expect a new contraction of 3.3% QoQ in Q4. This will be followed by a slow and uneven recovery, which will reach full traction only from Q2 2021, when we assume restrictions will be fully lifted. In the meantime, a ‘stop and go’ process may take place, making the recovery path bumpier and more uncertain...
US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade
US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.
Challenges and opportunities in US Commercial Real Estate
Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors.Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, and positive on the industrial sector.
EU agreement: a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing
The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history regarding a comprehensive package worth €1,824bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument – is a significant achievement and a net positive in the short term for EU assets.