- Global Investment Views - September 2019
Global Investment Views - September 2019
Wednesday 04 September 2019
Research / Market
Back to school. Back to normal?
Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now. Investors’ search for safety pushed core bond yields to unprecedented low levels, with yield on the 30-year German bunds turning negative for the first time ever. The US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, with yields on 2y note rising above those on the 10y bond.
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee.
U.S. inflation… what’s up?
From the CPI data, in particular the HCPI, one would get the sense that inflation has decelerated and stabilised somewhat.
Time for a flight to cyclical value in European equity
When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point. The performance of value vs growth has been on a downward trend for a long time, almost 13 years. In our view, the rotation towards value that started in September 2019 is likely to continue in 2020.European equities will benefit from this rotation; Europe is a value market as it is more skewed towards the traditional value sectors of financials, telecoms, mining and utilities, while being underweight in the hyper-growth segment of information technology (IT). In the past, rotations from growth to value have been more pronounced in Europe than the overall global market.
Global Investment Views - April 2019
Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.