US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

Friday 09 August 2019

Research / Market

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope 

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

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Global Investment View
31/01/2020 Research / Market

Global Investment Views - February 2020

At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between the US and China. Now, growth expectations are becoming the main driver of the market. That’s why the recent volatility due to the news about the spreading of the corona virus in China is higher than in the case of US-Iran tensions, as the epidemic could harm China (and global growth) if not contained soon (not our base case at the moment). Other than this issue, recent data point to a ‘so far, so good’ assessment as Germany has avoided a recession and the Euro area is bottoming out. Inflation uptrends are materialising to some extent, but risks appear to be limited and the overall inflation outlook remains benign. Central banks are likely to continue to pause on policy changes, which should help to maintain dovish financial conditions across regions. Therefore, in the search for further growth, attention is globally moving towards fiscal measures: Japanese stimulus package; approval of 2020 Budget Laws for Indonesia, the Philippines and India; and hopes for support in Germany, the UK and broader Europe (€1tn European Green Deal).