The GIV elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, Investment Platforms and the Amundi Investment Institute.

Credibility under scrutiny

A summer cocktail of earnings data, geopolitical headlines, and “policy events” has prompted investors to increasingly scrutinise equity and bond markets.

On the one hand, equities have held up, even advanced, on the back of a strong earnings season, which has so far supported the credibility of the AI trade. On the other hand, bond yields have risen globally to levels not seen in decades, largely due to uncertainty surrounding major central banks’ policy paths amid fears of sticky inflation, as well as rising concerns regarding funding needs and fiscal discipline.  

Bond yields on the rise

Global growth remains resilient but uneven, with policy divergence and geopolitical tensions creating an increasingly fragmented macro environment. Oil price volatility over the summer, driven largely by geopolitical developments, has renewed uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and, by extension, the path of monetary policy. These factors, together with funding needs and a lack of fiscal discipline, have created tensions in longer dated bond markets globally.

Positioning for growth amid dispersion

Equity markets edged higher, led by Europe and emerging markets. Earnings growth remains solid on both sides of the Atlantic. The earnings season highlighted wide single-stock dispersion, with investors rewarding growth and punishing misses. It has also delivered strong upgrades. As a result, earnings revisions have risen to levels usually seen during recovery phases. Also in EM, earnings remain robust.

Mildly pro-risk, with selectivity

The broader economic environment remains moderately constructive, as growth has so far proven resilient, particularly in Europe, and inflation has given some signs of easing. As markets continue to be sensitive to any signs of renewed geopolitical or inflationary pressure, we confirm a pro-risk positioning, but with a clear preference for carry, selectivity and regional diversification. 

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