January 2023 | For markets, this economic backdrop calls for a confirmation of a correction regime at the end of 2022 and in H1 2023, with inflation slowing, but still above normal levels. The correction phase will likely be driven by the profit recession, which we expect to materialize in H1. We believe a more cautious stance in equities would be prudent. For government bonds, slowing economic growth and hints about the change in the size of rate hikes may call for an active duration stance.
01 | Amundi Institute Insights: The USD cycle is being stretched. We expect to see a bumpy road, but suggest positioning for a stronger USD depreciation in 2023.
02 | Fixed Income: While inflation remains elevated, we are seeing signs of it peaking in the US and somewhat in Europe.
03 | Equity: US companies may face a margins squeeze as employment remains robust, wages are rising, and dollar headwinds persist.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of December 20, 2022. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.