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Amundi’s 2023 Mid-Year Investment Outlook

   

We believe the lagging effects of Central Bank tightening in the real economy will lead to a further deceleration in growth characterized by a mild US recession, anemic growth in Europe and more resilience in emerging markets.

Evidence from past episodes of high US inflation suggests it will take about two years to bring core inflation down by half from its peak level. We believe that the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rates are close to their cyclical peaks and do not expect any cuts for the remainder of 2023.

   Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2023 

Opportunities lie beyond precarious path to growth

  •  A central bank pause supports the case for bonds. We recommend investors assess the inflation path and the earnings outlook moving into 2024, in the search for opportunities in equities.
  •  Amid low visibility on the economic outlook, quality of equities and bonds is the compass with which to navigate this uncertain phase.
  • Emerging markets could be key to enhancing diversification and fostering medium-term return potential, with Asia in focus.

   

 Read our Mid-Year Outlook 

   

Featuring Insights from:

Vincent Mortier
Group Chief Investment Officer, Amundi

Monica Defend
Head of Amundi Institute & Chief Strategist

Ken Taubes
Chief Investment Officer, US
Portfolio Manager

Jonathan Duensing
Senior Managing Director
Head of Fixed Income, US
Portfolio Manager

Marco Pirondini
Senior Managing Director
Head of Equties, US
Portfolio Manager

   

Mid-Year Outlook | July 2023

Opportunities Lie Beyond the Precarious Path to Growth

Three elements remain crucial for developed markets: central banks, energy and growth. In the US, we expect a recession to come into play later in the third quarter, with the bulk in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by tightening lending conditions.

-Monica Defend; Head of the Amundi Institute

Market uncertainties and a narrow path to growth lead us to recommend a cautious start for H2. Join Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Institute, as they expand on these themes in Amundi’s Mid-Year Outlook.

    

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