Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe

Monday 03 June 2024

Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income


Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe

June 2024 | In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.

01 |  We upgrade this year's economic growth expectations for the Eurozone and the UK due to domestic demand and slowing inflation.

02 |We believe the US should remain resilient in the first half, but slowing wage growth and consumer delinquencies may weigh on the economy later.

03 | The disinflationary process in Europe and the UK will allow central banks to reduce rates, possibly ahead of the Fed.

Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe

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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of May 30, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.

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Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.

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The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.

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