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Monday 05 December 2022
Investment Talks, Fixed income, Equity, Perspectives
December 2022 | We predict that 2023 will be a two-speed year, with plenty of risks to watch out for. Bonds are back, market valuations are getting more attractive, and a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points. We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best.
01 | Developed market central banks have hiked rates aggressively in 2022 to tame inflation pressures, but they are unlikely to keep this pace going in 2023.
02 | The energy crisis will be the main economic driver in Europe, which we believe will fall into recession.
03 | The level of the Federal Reserve’s terminal interest rate will be critical; if close to 6%, a US recession will be in the cards and could be more severe than what is expected today.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of November 17, 2022. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
The current US debt ceiling was reached in January and the US Treasury warned that it would run out of cash to meet its expenditure commitments around June 1st, although a precise date is impossible to predict. The Republicans’ initial proposal asked for spending cuts to the tune of a 1% limit on the annual growth of nominal government expenditure over the next ten years. This fiscal contraction, along with a tight monetary stance, would be negative for economic growth. However, a default would be even worse for the economy.
Markets are pricing in a rosy scenario in which economic deceleration will force the Fed to cut rates in 2023. However, we believe the Fed will stay on hold for 2023 and cut rates only in 2024. Inflation is cooling slowly, and the US economy is cooling down as well. From an equity perspective, we remain concerned about future profits, which leads us to stay defensive on equities and credit. On the fixed income side, we stay constructive on US duration and expect the US yield curve to steepen.
Our assessment is that most banks are much better prepared to withstand financial volatility today than they were in 2008-9. As a result of the systematic application of much greater regulatory oversight, US banks have much higher levels of equity capital, better funding and liquidity, less leverage and much lower asset risk. With the potential for stronger supervision and regulation across the sector, we suggest investors carefully select securities from larger, well-capitalized banks with diversified business models and conservative lending strategies.
Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our literature section.
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