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Investment Outlook 2023: Some Light for Investors After the Storm
Monday 05 December 2022
Investment Talks, Fixed income, Equity, Perspectives
Investment Outlook 2023: Some Light for Investors After the Storm
December 2022 | We predict that 2023 will be a two-speed year, with plenty of risks to watch out for. Bonds are back, market valuations are getting more attractive, and a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points. We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best.
01 | Developed market central banks have hiked rates aggressively in 2022 to tame inflation pressures, but they are unlikely to keep this pace going in 2023.
02 | The energy crisis will be the main economic driver in Europe, which we believe will fall into recession.
03 | The level of the Federal Reserve’s terminal interest rate will be critical; if close to 6%, a US recession will be in the cards and could be more severe than what is expected today.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of November 17, 2022. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
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Investment Talks
Potential Fixed Income Opportunities in the US Banking Sector
Our assessment is that most banks are much better prepared to withstand financial volatility today than they were in 2008-9. As a result of the systematic application of much greater regulatory oversight, US banks have much higher levels of equity capital, better funding and liquidity, less leverage and much lower asset risk. With the potential for stronger supervision and regulation across the sector, we suggest investors carefully select securities from larger, well-capitalized banks with diversified business models and conservative lending strategies.
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