We believe 2024 will see the tide turn for the economic and monetary policy outlooks, while fiscal policy may experience constrained consolidation with the focus remaining on the energy transition.
We expect the United States to face a recession in H1 as stringent financial conditions begin to impact consumers and businesses. In H2, we expect growth to stabilize below its potential and inflation to move closer to its target. We expect a gradual weakening of global growth, while inflation is expected to temper but stay above central bank targets. We call this a fragmented outlook, marked by divergent economic trajectories.