Anatomy of a Crisis

Thursday 03 March 2022

Cross Asset

   

Anatomy of a Crisis 

March 2022 | The recent rise in market uncertainty has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, the hawkish pivot from central banks, and stubborn inflation. Collectively, these indications, as well as the effects of inflation on consumers’ disposable incomes, represent a major risk. However, financial conditions remain easy and economic growth is robust. Thus, we don’t think it is time to structurally move to a risk-off allocation. We do think investors should tactically readjust risk exposure while maintaining a well-diversified and active stance. 

01 |  Thematic: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, leading Western democracies and Russia to engage in unprecedented confrontation. Resulting sanctions will likely result in a deep recession in Russia, which should prevent Putin from financing a long war.

02 | Amundi Institute: Through our new Amundi Institute, investors can expect a deeper dialogue and sophisticated advice to build more robust portfolios owing to the many structural regime changes under way in areas such as inflation, the environment and geopolitics.

03 | Global Research: We are in the middle of a regime shift characterized by unprecedented inflationary forces not seen in the past five decades. The future will likely bring a harsh readjustment of the geopolitical order and higher fragmentation, the final death of globalization and the emergence of regionalization centred on new global powers.

2022.03 - Cross Asset Invt Strategy Monthly

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