Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

Monday 12 April 2021

Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Pascal Blanqué
Group Chief Investment Officer,
Amundi

Vincent Mortier
Deputy Group CIO,
Amundi

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04/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.

03/04/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Markets, economy and valuations: debate rages on

We believe valuations are excessive in some segments, such as mega-caps, where profit margins are also high. But the key question is whether these high margins justify current valuations? And will these companies be able to grow their top line quickly, while maintaining margins in a context of increased global competition and exhausted consumers? On the other hand, judging the direction of the economy is becoming increasingly difficult.

02/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

A challenging rate-cut path for central banks

The strength in the US economy keeps us confident that the Federal Reserve will not begin policy cuts before the end of May, and the European Central Bank will also remain vigilant on disinflation. Sluggish growth expectations going forward mean the emphasis on quality credit and valuations will likely increase. Equities markets are continuing to display acute anomalies relative to the historical norm, with high valuation dispersion between growth and value and an extraordinary concentration in the largest securities. We are prioritizing fundamentals, and exploring strong businesses in Japan and US value sectors.

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