Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deterioratingRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
Friday 11 March 2022
Investment Talks
Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
March 2022 | After several rounds of negotiations, the conversation on the war front in the Ukraine has shifted towards Russian demands regarding the breakaway regions of Donbass and Crimea. However, a quick resolution to the conflict is highly uncertain at this stage. Against this backdrop, market attention is turning to an assessment of the macro outlook.
01 | We have downgraded our global growth forecasts as the global economy will be impacted by higher energy and food prices, both on the demand and production side. Europe is the area where stagflationary risks are highest and a temporary recession will be possible in 2022.
02 | We keep a mildly-cautious risk allocation, with a focus on inflation resilience in stock and credit selection. Duration is played actively within a short duration stance, as we recognise that higher inflation will drive yields higher in the mid-term but short-term dynamics could provide tactical opportunities.
03 | A lower growth environment and prices trending higher will likely pressure margins and could potentially lead to an earnings recession. While we think the US can avoid this, Europe is more at risk. In our view, current market corrections incorporate most of the bad news, but some further retracements are possible.
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com). Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike Fund returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 10, 2022. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
