Earlier this year, massive trade uncertainty caused extreme market volatility. Since then, concerns over economic costs, retaliations, and legal challenges have eased tensions.

Key points

  • Understanding the historical dynamics of trade and protectionism offers valuable insight into recent trends.

  • Analogies solely focusing on the 1930s trade wars provide an incomplete picture.

  • Since the 16th century, global trade experienced four major expansion phases, fueling competition among powers, initially through trade wars, but ultimately leading to WWI.

  • The fiasco of tariff-wars during the Great Depression and US hegemony contributed to a broad cut in tariffs post-WWII.

  • Today, worsening trade imbalances and the return of a multipolar world are consistent with the resurgence of tariffs, amid growing geopolitical tensions.

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Cargo Ship

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