As we enter the second half of 2026, investors continue to navigate an evolving economic landscape. In our 2026 Mid-Year Investment Outlook, we set out our forecasts and highlight potential investment opportunities across asset classes.


The global economy appears to be at a tipping point, weighed down by uneven growth and tighter fiscal policy. At the same time, inflation risks are rising as geopolitical tensions disrupt the energy, agri-food, and logistics sectors. Unlike artificial intelligence (AI), which continues to drive earnings across regions and sectors.


Amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, we consider a range of potential outcomes, centred on a 60% probability of de-escalation in the Middle East crisis. That said, we also consider more extreme scenarios, ranging from a global economic shock to a more constructive gradual normalisation, which could support monetary easing.


The four key themes driving the markets include:

  • Resilience to the energy shock
  • Policy credibility amid higher debt and central bank constraints
  • Evolving US political dynamics
  • The continued expansion of the AI supercycle. 


Against this backdrop, portfolios should combine long-term growth stories with resilience. Investment strategies should remain diversified*, with greater emphasis on risk management, selective opportunities, and reduced reliance on policy shifts. 
 

Mid-year Investment Outlook 2026

by the Amundi Investment Institute
Read the full paper

* Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 6 July 2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. 
 

Date of first use: 6 July 2026
Doc ID: 5719850