The Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) offer an annual perspective on expected returns across a broad range of asset classes over the next decade.
The 2026 edition is framed around the notion of rupture. The global environment is no longer defined primarily by the economic cycle; instead, it is increasingly shaped by disruption. The central challenge is to understand how economies, businesses and investors adjust to a world in which resilience, adaptability and strategic independence carry greater weight.
Long-term forces are becoming more pronounced. Artificial intelligence is transforming productivity and competitive positioning, though its effects remain uneven across countries and sectors. Demographic headwinds continue to constrain potential growth. Energy has become both a strategic limitation and a driver of industrial differentiation. Meanwhile, strategic autonomy is shifting from a policy aspiration to an allocation priority, shaping investment in defence, infrastructure, supply chains and technology.
The outcome is a world of resilient, though not structurally stronger, growth, alongside inflation that is likely to remain more persistent than in the pre-pandemic era.
For companies, adaptation requires re-evaluating supply chains, reinforcing robustness, managing energy dependence and investing in flexibility rather than efficiency alone. For investors, the implication is that the investment landscape is changing. Diversification* remains essential: portfolios would benefit from combining resilient fixed income, differentiated equity opportunities, selective private assets and strategic diversifiers.
Key findings for investors
- Ten-year expected returns remain broadly attractive, but diversification* and rigorous selection are necessary. The dispersion of returns is likely to widen over the next five years, and strategic asset allocation should focus on reinforcing resilience, not merely capturing upside potential.
- Resilience suggests favouring exposures linked to structural security needs, including energy, defence, digital infrastructure and climate adaptation.
- In a period of rupture, investors should balance higher-returning exposures, such as emerging markets, with asset classes capable of enhancing resilience, including global government bonds and global investment grade credit.
- For investors with a moderate risk profile, bonds are central to building a more resilient portfolio. Expected returns can be improved across risk profiles by including selective exposure to private assets. Gold also remains a valuable strategic allocation instrument, particularly as a diversification tool. Currency dynamics are becoming increasingly integral to allocation decisions, as the long-standing predominance of the US dollar is expected to gradually diminish.
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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 21/04/2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
Date of first use: 27/04/2026.
Doc ID: 5432427.