The US Israel strikes on Iran highlight a structural shift: geopolitics is once again a macro driver. We are moving into a “controlled disorder” environment where shocks trigger rotation and dispersion rather than a single, uniform market direction.
As long as oil flows continue, current prices should represent a volatility event rather than a systemic crisis — but they underscore that geopolitics is now structurally embedded in the investment cycle. In the short term this raises inflation risk, strengthens the USD and widens asset class dispersion. Energy volatility, inflation uncertainty and regional divergence are re emerging as defining market characteristics.


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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 2 March 2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
 

Date of first use: 2 March 2026

Doc ID: 5264811