Discover how Beijing's trade war strategy has shifted from restraint to decisive retaliation. Eroding trust from U.S. 'strategic decoupling' leads to cautious engagement and a focus on Global South partnerships.

Key points

  • Beijing’s approach to the trade war has shifted dramatically; where it once favoured restraint and dialogue in Trump’s first term, it now responds with decisive retaliation. 

  • Washington’s drumbeat of ‘strategic decoupling’ has strained trust, leading Beijing to adopt a more guarded and hesitant stance toward engagement, lowering the odds of meaningful negotiation. 

  • Facing multiple contingencies, Beijing will likely lean towards an all-weather strategy: calibrating domestic economic buffers, expanding Global South partnerships, and selectively engaging with U.S. allies—while deprioritizing deals with Washington.

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